Price Trends: Modest but Positive Growth
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Home prices in Sonoma County are expected to rise moderately in 2026 rather than crash or skyrocket. Forecasts project countywide appreciation in the ~2–5% range, with stronger growth (up to ~6%) in high-demand pockets like Windsor, Bennett Valley, and Fountaingrove.
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Median values appear relatively stable near the mid-$700k to high-$800k range, with some variation by neighborhood.
What this means:
✔ Sellers can still expect positive equity growth.
✔ Buyers are unlikely to see price drops large enough to justify waiting indefinitely, especially for well-situated homes.
Inventory and Market Balance
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After years of tight supply, more homes are hitting the market as owners who delayed selling begin to list.
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Some data shows seasonal swings in listings and overall inventory levels shifting toward a more balanced market, not extreme seller dominance.
For buyers:
🔹 Greater choice and room to negotiate (especially on homes needing updates).
🔹 Fewer bidding wars compared to 2021–2023.
For sellers:
🔹 Increased competition means pricing and presentation become more crucial.
🔹 Overpricing may lead to longer market times.
Mortgage Rates & Affordability
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National forecasts suggest mortgage rates could ease further in 2026, potentially falling toward the mid-5% range if inflation continues cooling.
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Even with slightly lower rates, affordability remains a challenge in Sonoma County relative to many U.S. markets.
Impact:
✔ Some buyers previously sidelined by higher rates may return.
✔ First-time buyers could find entry-level homes ($600k–$900k range) more approachable.
Submarket Nuances
Different areas will behave slightly differently:
Santa Rosa & Rohnert Park / Cotati
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Still relatively more affordable; expected steady demand, particularly for entry-level homes.
Windsor & Petaluma
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Continued strong interest due to lifestyle amenities and quality of life.
Luxury & Rural Properties
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Luxury homes and rural estates may see slower nominal growth but retain strong long-term appeal.
Fire Risk & Insurance – A Local Wild Card
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In fire-prone neighborhoods (e.g., parts of Santa Rosa, Glen Ellen), insurance costs and availability continue to weigh on buyer decisions and pricing.
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Sellers in these zones should proactively document mitigation efforts and defensible space to support buyer confidence.
What This Means for You!
For Buyers
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Opportunity: More inventory and growing negotiating leverage compared to the red-hot markets of 2021–2023.
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Strategy: Be ready to act when you find well-priced, move-in-ready properties.
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Affordability: Improving slowly, so earlier action helps lock in better financing.
For Sellers
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Market: Stabilizing rather than overheating. Buyers are choosier; market timing matters.
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Preparation: Accurate pricing, staging, and competitive marketing remain key.
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Equity: Continued modest gains mean sellers can still capture value without the frenzy of prior years.
Big Picture Summary
2026 in Sonoma County = a more balanced, predictable market.
It’s not a boom-or-bust environment but a transition from sellers’ market extremes toward equilibrium — with moderate price gains, growing inventory, continued buyer demand, and slightly improved affordability all playing a role.
Whether you are looking to buy or sell real estate, the market can be challenging to navigate. We are happy to schedule a time to discuss your goals and needs in order to help you and your family through your journey. Please contact us here and we can get help you reach achieve your dreams!
Sincerely,
Our family- Team Johnson.
