Price Trends: Modest and Mixed
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Recent local data shows Marin home prices softening, with December 2025 median prices down compared to the year before and a more selective sales pace.
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However, long-term forecasts for 2026 generally anticipate steady to modest price growth in the 1–3% range, especially in highly desirable neighborhoods (e.g., Tiburon, Mill Valley, Kentfield) where limited inventory remains a support factor.
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Overall, this suggests a less dramatic price surge than earlier Bay Area boom years, trending instead toward stability or gentle upward movement.
What this means:
✔ Prices likely won’t fall sharply, but gains may be slow.
✔ High-demand submarkets will still outperform broader county averages.
Inventory & Market Balance
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Marin’s inventory is relatively limited, with months of supply generally remaining below “balanced market” thresholds, though it can fluctuate seasonally.
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Some reports show tight supply with homes selling slower than in prior years, indicating buyers are more selective and sellers can’t assume instant offers.
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Other data suggests inventory has previously expanded vs prior years, giving buyers more choices before 2026.
For buyers:
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More homes may be available than in the peak seller market years — but prime properties still move quickly.
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You’ll have negotiating leverage on appropriately priced homes, especially those needing updates.
For sellers:
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Tight inventory still helps pricing power, but buyers are more discerning and value-driven now.
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Accurate pricing and strong presentation (staging, condition, marketing) make a big difference.
Mortgage Rates & Affordability
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Mortgage rates are expected to hover around current mid-6% levels in 2026, which is high compared to pandemic lows but may be stable enough for planning.
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Higher rates temper affordability, particularly in expensive markets like Marin — but some reports suggest continued modest declines into late 2026 could help buyers.
Impact:
✔ Buyers benefit from modest rate relief vs historic peaks.
✔ Sellers should be prepared for rate-sensitive price negotiations.
Submarket Nuances
Different areas of Marin will likely behave differently:
North & Central Marin (e.g., Novato)
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Often more price-sensitive and buyer-friendly relative to Southern Marin.
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Good value homes here may see steady interest, especially from commuters and first-time buyers.
Southern Marin (e.g., Mill Valley, Tiburon)
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Stronger pricing resilience due to limited inventory and lifestyle demand.
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Premium properties could outperform county averages.
Condos & Attached Homes
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Historically more volatile; recent data shows condo pricing and time on market can vary widely, making focused strategy essential — especially with shifting demand.
What This Means for You in 2026!
For Buyers
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More choices + less frenzy than in previous years — especially if you’re patient and strategic.
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Negotiating leverage exists on properties that aren’t in top condition or overpriced.
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Consider getting pre-approved and act decisively when values align with your budget.
Tips for buyers:
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Focus on properties with good schools, transit access, and lifestyle appeal — these tend to hold value well.
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Be realistic about renovation budgets; move-in-ready homes often command premiums.
For Sellers
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Market conditions still favor sellers relative to many national markets, but pricing must be precise to attract today’s more discerning buyers.
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Preparation matters: staging, pre-listing repairs, and smart marketing can shorten days on market.
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In sought-after neighborhoods, strong listings could still see competitive offers.
Tips for sellers:
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Although it is difficult to time the market; you could attempt to time your sale with spring/summer 2026 market activity for maximum visibility.
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Be prepared to negotiate — buyers are price-conscious even if inventory is limited.
📌 2026 Summary — Marin County
A balanced, stabilization-oriented market is expected in 2026:
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Prices: steady/slight growth, not boom-level spikes.
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Inventory: constrained but variable, favoring careful strategy.
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Interest rates: stable but still a factor in affordability.
Overall: Buyers gain negotiating room and more options than in recent seller-driven years, while sellers still benefit from demand and limited supply — provided properties are well-priced and well-presented for today’s market realities.
Whether you are looking to buy or sell real estate, the market can be challenging to navigate. We are happy to schedule a time to discuss your goals and needs in order to help you and your family through your journey. Please contact us here and we can get help you reach achieve your dreams!
Sincerely,
Our family- Team Johnson.
